Population
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Many centuries ago, a few fishing
families settled on the shore of a small island. They built simple huts,
repaired their boats under the shade of coconut trees and knew almost
everyone who lived there. Life was quiet, and the island seemed unchanged from
one season to the next. As the years passed, more families
arrived and the village gradually expanded. More houses were built, a market
was opened, roads connected different parts of the island, and the harbour
linked the island to distant lands. The once quiet village slowly grew into a
bustling town. Time continued to move on. Fishing was
no longer enough to support the growing community, and new industries
developed in other places. Many people left to study or work elsewhere.
Gradually, the town became quieter, with fewer shops and many empty houses. The story of the island was also the
story of its people. As their lives changed, so did the place they called
home. How do such changes happen? Why do some
places grow while others become smaller? What do these changes tell us about
a society? Let us find out. |
POPULATION AND
DEMOGRAPHY
The
population of a place is the total number of people living there at a given
time. The scientific study of population is called demography.
Demographers
study the size, distribution and composition (such as age, sex, occupation,
education and place of residence) of populations, and how these change over
time. They also study the factors that bring about these changes.
By
analysing population data, demographers identify patterns and trends. Their
findings help us understand how societies are changing and what these changes
may mean in the future.
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|
Demographers collect and analyse data
mainly through the census (a complete count of a population, usually
conducted once every ten years), sample surveys such as the National Family
Health Survey (NFHS), and civil registration systems that record births and
deaths. |
Why is demography important?
Governments
need reliable information about their population to plan for the future. The
number of schools, hospitals, roads, houses, public transport systems and other
services depends on how many people live in a place and on the characteristics
of its population.
- Businesses also use population information when deciding where to open factories, offices or shops.
- Health experts study population trends to prepare for future healthcare needs.
- Environmental planners examine how population changes may affect the use of land, water and other natural resources.
- Demography also helps us understand some of the important changes taking place in the world today. Why are some countries experiencing a shortage of workers? Why are others trying to create enough jobs for their growing young population? Why are some cities expanding rapidly while others are shrinking? The study of demography helps answer such questions.
In the
following sections, we will explore how populations are distributed across the
world, how populations change over time, the factors responsible for these
changes and what they mean for India and the world.
UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION
OF POPULATION
The
population of the world is not spread evenly across the Earth. Some places have
a large number of people living in a small area, while others have very few
inhabitants. This is called the uneven distribution of population.
Plains,
river valleys and coastal regions usually have a large population because they
provide fertile soil, water, transport and employment opportunities. In
contrast, deserts, high mountains, dense forests and polar regions have fewer
people because they have harsh climates and limited resources.
Population density
Since the
world's population is not evenly distributed, geographers use population
density to compare how crowded different places are. Population density is the
number of people per square kilometre of land
Population
Density = Total Population
Total Land Area
For example, if 10,000 people live in an area of 100 square kilometres, the population density is 100 persons per square kilometre. Population density helps us compare different regions, even if they differ in size.
Densely, moderately
and sparsely populated areas
- Areas with a high population density (more than 300 persons/sq km) are called densely populated areas. These places have many people living in a small area. Cities such as Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata and regions like the Indo-Gangetic Plain are densely populated because they offer fertile land, better employment, education, healthcare, and transport facilities.
- Areas with moderate population density (100-300 persons/sq km) are called moderately populated areas. They include many towns and regions where farming, industries, and other economic activities support a moderate number of people. Parts of the Deccan Plateau are moderately populated.
- Areas with a low population density (less than 100 persons/sq km) are called sparsely populated areas. These places have few people living over a large area. The Himalayas, the Thar Desert and the cold regions of Ladakh are sparsely populated because the physical conditions make settlement difficult.
· POPULATION GROWTH
Population
growth is the increase in the number of people living in a place over a period
of time. It is measured by comparing the population of a place at two different
points in time. Population growth varies from one country to another and from
one period to another.
Trends in world
population
For most
of human history, the world's population grew very slowly. Food production was
limited, and diseases, famines and wars often caused large numbers of deaths.
Over the
past 200 years, however, the world's population has grown rapidly. It reached 1
billion around 1804, 2 billion in 1927, and 8 billion in 2022. This rapid
growth was made possible by improvements in agriculture, healthcare, sanitation
and living conditions.
Today,
the world's population is still increasing, but the rate of growth has slowed.
This is mainly because people in many countries are choosing to have maller
families. Better education, improved healthcare, urbanisation and greater
access to family planning have all contributed to this trend.
According
to the United Nations, the world's population is expected to continue growing until
it reaches about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. After that, it is expected to
remain nearly stable for some time before beginning to decline slowly towards
the end of the century.
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Increase in global population |
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|
Population milestone |
Approximate year reached |
Years taken to add this billion |
|
1 billion |
1804 |
(all of human history) |
|
2 billion |
1927 |
-- |
|
3 billion |
1960 |
33 years |
|
4 billion |
1974 |
14 years |
|
5 billion |
1987 |
13 years |
|
6 billion |
1999 |
12 years |
|
7 billion |
2011 |
12 years |
|
8 billion |
2022 |
-- |
|
(Source: United Nations, World
Population Prospects) |
||
Look at
Table-Calculate how many years it took for the world's population to increase
from 1 billion to 2 billion, and then from 7 billion to 8 billion. What does
this tell you about the rate of population growth?
Draw a
graph using the data in the table. Based on the graph, identify the point where
population growth appears to accelerate (a phenomenon demographers call the
'population explosion'). Discuss your answer with your classmates.
1.
Identify
the period during which the world's population increases most rapidly. What
evidence from the graph supports your answer?
2.
Compare
the rate of population growth between 2025-2050 and 2050-2100. What does this
tell you about future population trends? How should countries prepare for these
changes?
DETERMINANTS OF
POPULATION CHANGE
Population
never stays fixed. Some places experience population growth over time while
some may experience a decline. This variation in the size of a population over
a period of time is called population change, Population change is driven by
three fundamental processes: birth rate, death rate and migration.
Birth rate
Birth
rate is the number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in one year.
A high
birth rate usually leads to faster population growth, while a low birth rate
slows population growth. Birth rates vary from country to country. They are
influenced by factors such as education, healthcare, income, access to family
planning, and the age at which people marry.
In many
countries, birth rates have declined over the past few decades. In India, the
birth rate has fallen from about 40 births per 1,000 people in 1951 to about
18.3 births per 1,000 people today (as per the 2024 data made available by the
Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India).
Fertility rate and
Replacement-level fertility rate
The total
fertility rate is the average number of children that a woman is expected to
have during her lifetime.
The
fertility rate shows the long-term pattern of childbearing in a population. In
many countries, fertility rates have declined because of better education,
improved healthcare, greater employment opportunities for women, and changing
lifestyles.
|
Total Fertility Rate - Selected Countries |
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|
Country |
Approximate Total fertility rate
(children per woman) |
Demographic situation |
|
|
Niger |
6.7 |
Far above replacement; rapid population
growth |
|
|
Nigeria |
4.6 |
Above replacement; strong growth |
|
|
India |
1.9 |
Just below replacement level |
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|
United States |
1.6 |
Below replacement level, population
stable due to migration |
|
|
China |
1.0 |
Well below replacement, shrinking
population |
|
|
South Korea |
0.7 |
Among the world's lowest; sharp
population decline |
|
|
(Illustrative figures based on recent
UN/national estimates) |
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A
population can remain stable if each generation is replaced by the next. This
happens when the replacement-level fertility rate is about 2.1 children per
woman, which means that on average, each woman has two children in her
lifetime.
When the
fertility rate remains above the replacement level for many years, the
population usually continues to grow. When it remains below the replacement
level, the population may gradually begin to decline.
Lets do
it
1.
If
you were asked to group these countries into three categories based on their
fertility rates and demographic situations, how would you classify them? Give a
suitable heading for each group and explain your reasons.
2.
India's
fertility rate is slightly below the replacement level. If it remains like this
for many years, what changes might occur in its population in the long term?
3.
Which
countries are likely to need more schools in the coming years? Which countries
may need more healthcare facilities for older people? Give reasons.
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China's
One-Child Policy By the
1970s, China's population had grown rapidly, putting pressure on food
supplies, housing, education, healthcare and employment. The Chinese
government feared that continued rapid population growth could slow economic
development and make it difficult to improve people's standard of living. |
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|
In
1979, China introduced the One-Child Policy, under which most urban couples
were allowed to have only one child, although there were exceptions for some
rural families and ethnic minorities. The policy was enforced through a
combination of incentives and penalties. Over time, China's fertility rate
declined sharply, and population growth slowed considerably. Many researchers
believe that this contributed to improvements in per capita income and made
it easier to expand education, healthcare and other public services. However,
the policy also had unintended consequences. In some regions, a preference
for sons led some families to take illegal or unfair steps to ensure they had
a boy. As a result, many more boys than girls were born, creating a gender
imbalance, Fertility remained low for many years, the proportion of elderly
people increased while the number of young workers declined. Recognising
these challenges, China relaxed the policy in 2015 by allowing two children
and later removed most birth restrictions altogether. However, fertility has
remained low despite these changes. India's Family
Planning Programme After
Independence, India's population grew rapidly as improvements in healthcare,
sanitation and food production helped more people survive and live longer. At
the same time, fertility remained high. Policymakers realised that rapid
population growth could make it more difficult to provide adequate education,
healthcare, housing, employment and other basic services to a growing
population. In
1952, India became the first country in the world to launch a national family
planning programme. Unlike China's One-Child Policy, India's programme was
based on voluntary participation, It sought to improve access to maternal and
child healthcare, public awareness and family welfare services. The programme
also recognised that education, especially of girls, and women's empowerment
play an important role in enabling families to make informed choices. During
the following decades, campaigns promoting small families became common
across India. The slogan 'Hum Do, Hamare Do' ('We Two, Ours Two') encouraged
couples to voluntarily limit family size to two children. As a
result of all these initiatives, India's fertility rate declined steadily,
although it continues to vary across states. Both
China and India introduce measures to slow population growth, but their
approaches were different. What were these differences? What advantages and
challenges did each approach face? |
Death rate
Death
rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population during one year.
In the
past, infectious diseases, poor sanitation, famines and limited medical care
caused many deaths, especially among infants and young children. During the
19th and 20th centuries, improvements in vaccination, antibiotics, clean
drinking water, sanitation and nutrition greatly reduced deaths in many
countries. As a result, people began living longer. India's death rate fell
from around 25 per 1,000 in 1951 to about 6 per 1,000 today.
Migration
Migration
is the movement of people from one place to another with the intention of
settling there, either temporarily or permanently. It affects the population of
both the area people leave (origin area) and the area they move to (destination
area).
·
In-migration
or immigration increases the population of the receiving area.
·
Out-migration
or emigration decreases the population of the sending area.
People
migrate because of push factors (reasons that compel them to leave their
original home such as unemployment, conflicts, natural disasters or
environmental changes) and pull factors (reasons that attract them to a new
place such as better education, employment or business opportunities).
Migration may occur internally or within a country, such as from villages to
cities, or internationally (between different countries). For example, many
young people migrate from villages to cities such as Mumbai, Bengaluru or Delhi
in search of education and employment.
Migration
also influences the economy, culture and society of both the places that people
leave and the places where they settle.
To
understand these long-term changes in population, demographers use the
Demographic Transition Model.
The Demographic Transition Model
Demographers
studying population change across many countries in the 19th and 20th centuries
noticed that as countries develop economically, their birth and death rates go through
a predictable sequence of changes They described this sequence in a model
called the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
The Model
describes how the population of many countries has changed as they have
industrialised and developed. The Demographic Transition Model helps us
understand general trends, but it is not a fixed rule. Countries differ in
their history, culture, economy and government policies. As o result, they may
move through the transition at different speeds or experience unique
demographic patterns.
The model
is a useful tool for understariding how populations change over time and for
comparing demographic trends across countries.
|
The four stages of the Demographic
Transition Model |
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|
Stage 1 High birth rate and high death rate: |
Both birth rates and death rates are
high, often 35-40 per 1,000 or higher. Since births and deaths roughly
balance each other, the total population grows very slowly. Death rates are
high because of disease, famine, poor nutrition and lack of medical care.
Birth rates are high because families need many children to survive to
adulthood and to support parents in old age. |
|
Stage 2 High birth rate but declining death rate: |
Death rates begin to fall sharply,
because of improvements in medicine, sanitation, food supply and public
health, but birth rates remain high. This creates a large gap between births
and deaths, causing rapid population growth. The poorer countries in
sub-Saharan Africa are currently in this stage. |
|
Stage 3 Declining birth rate and low death rate: |
Birth rates begin to fall as societies
urbanÃse, female education rises, family planning becomes available and
accepted and economic development reduces the need for large families. Population continues to grow but at a
slowing rate. Many developing countries, including India, are now in this
stage. |
|
Stage 4 Low birth rate and low death rate: |
Both birth rates and death rates are
low, and population growth slows to zero or even declines. This is the situation in highly
developed countries. Their fertility rates are below-replacement level and
their populations are either stable or declining. Japan, Germany, South Korea
and Italy are currently in this stage. |
India's position in the Demographic Transition Model
India
today is clearly in the later part of Stage 3 as birth rates are falling, death
rates are already low and population growth is slowing. However, India's
transition has been highly uneven geographically:
·
Southern,
western, eastern and some northern states, such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu,
Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, Punjab, Himachal
Pradesh and West Bengal are in advanced Stage 3 or in Stage 4, with fertility
rates at or below replacement level.
·
Some
of the northern and central states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand are in the early part of Stage
3. with fertility rates above 2.1. Their population is rising but their rate of
population growth is slowing down.
India's
population is expected to continue growing until around 2060-2064 before
stabilising and then very gradually beginning to decline.
POPULATION
COMPOSITION
To
understand a population better, we need to know more than just its size. We
also need to know the characteristics of the people who make up the population,
such as their age, sex, education, occupation and place of residence. These
characteristics together are called population composition.
Age composition
Age
composition refers to the distribution of a population across different age
groups. It tells us how many young, middle-aged, and elderly people a country
has, which in turn affects the demands placed on schools, hospitals, the job
market, and pension systems.
|
Geographers
typically divide the population into three broad groups: |
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|
1 |
Children
(0-14 years) |
Called
the young dependant group, they are too young to work and must be supported
by the working population. They represent the future workforce. |
|
2 |
Working-age
adults (15-59 years) |
Called
the economically active group as they are the productive segment of the
population that drives the economy, pays taxes and supports both younger and
older dependants. (Note: The Government of India considers 59 to be the upper
limit of the working-age group, unlike the UN, which places it at 64) |
|
3 |
Senior
citizens (60 years and above) |
Called
the elderly dependant group, they typically require support in terms of
healthcare, pensions and social care. |
According
to demographic data from the United Nations Population Fund:
- 24%
of India's population is below 15 years, this segment is gradually shrinking as
birth rates drop across the country.
- 68%
is in the working-age group
- 7%
is 65 years and above, and this group is expanding steadily
This
means India has a young population, with a large proportion of its people being
children and young adults. This has important implications. On one hand, it
means a large future workforce and the potential for economic growth. On the
other hand, it means an enormous demand for education and employment in the
coming decades.
Sex ratio
Sex ratio
is defined as the number of females per 1.000 males in a population. If a place
has a sex ratio of 950, it means there are 950 females for every 1,000 males.
A
balanced sex ratio is generally a sign of a healthy society. A low sex ratio
may indicate problems such as gender discrimination, preference for male
children, or unequal access to healthcare and nutrition. A high sex ratio may
result from factors such as longer life expectancy among women or migration
patterns.
India's
overall sex ratio was 1,020 females per 1,000 males. However, the sex ratio at
birth for children born in the last five years, according to the recent
National Family Health Survey, stands at 929 girls per 1,000 boys. This is a
cause for concern because o balanced sex ratio is vital for continued
development, social stability and equality
Population pyramid and its interpretation
What is a population
pyramid?
A
population pyramid is a graphical representation of the age-sex composition of
a population. It is one of the most powerful and widely used tools in
demography, a single diagram that can reveal an enormous amount about a
country's population history, current situation, and likely future.
The age
groups are arranged vertically on the pyramid, from the youngest at the bottom
to the oldest at the top. The bar's length represents either the number or the
percentage of people in that age group.
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THE DEMOGRAPHIC
DIVIDEND
As you
can see from India's population pyramid, more than 65% of Indians are below the
age of 35. This is called a youth bulge. India has the largest number of young
people of any country in the world. Over the next few decades, many of these
young people will enter the workforce.
When the
proportion of working-age people in a population is significantly larger than
the proportion of dependants, a country can experience a period of rapid
economic growth. This is because, when more people are employed, they earn
income, save money, spend on goods and services, and pay taxes. The government
can use the tax revenue to build schools, hospitals, roads, public transport
and other facilities. Businesses also benefit because they have more workers
and more customers. Together, these factors can lead to faster economic growth.
This
advantage is called the demographic dividend. It is the economic benefit of
having a large number of people who can work and earn.
How other countries
use the demographic dividend
Countries
such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and China used their demographic
dividend to grow their economies rapidly.
They
succeeded because they:
·
invested
in good education and skill training
·
created
jobs in industries and businesses
·
encouraged
more women to join the workforce.
India's opportunity
India's
demographic dividend window is expected to last from about 2005 to 2055, with
the greatest opportunity around 2040. By 2041, India's working-age population
is expected to reach about 1 billion people.
However,
having a young population alone does not guarantee success. India must make the
best use of this opportunity by:
·
Providing
quality education and skill training so that young people are ready for modern
jobs.
·
Creating
enough jobs for millions of young people entering the workforce every year.
·
Increasing
women's participation in the workforce, as many women are still not employed.
·
Improving
healthcare, because healthy people are more productive.
·
If
India invests wisely in its young population, it can become one of the world's
leading economies.
|
The concept of the demographic dividend
was popularised by Harvard economist David Bloom in the 1990s. His research
showed that demographic change accounted for as much as one-third of East
Asia's economic boom. He estimated that if India invests properly in its
young population, the demographic dividend could add up to 2 percentage
points to India's annual economic growth rate for several decades. |
As India continues to change, understanding its population will remain essential for building a healthy, prosperous and sustainable society.
Keywords
population: the total number of people living in a place at a given
time.
demography: the scientific study of the size, composition,
distribution and changes of population
Census: a complete count of a population, usually
conducted once every ten years
birth rate: the number of live births per 1,000 persons in
a population in a given year
death rate: the number of deaths per 1,000 people in a
population during one year
total fertility rate: the average number of children a woman
is expected to have during her lifetime
replacement-level fertility rate: the fertility rate
(about 2.1 children per woman) needed for one generation to replace itself
migration: the movement of people from one place to
another with the intention of settling there, temporarily or permanently
immigration: movement of people into an area, increasing its
population
emigration: movement of people out of an area, decreasing
its population
Demographic Transition Model (DTM): a model describing the
predictable sequence of changes in birth and death rates as countries develop
population composition: the multi-dimensional description of a
population by age, sex, education and occupation
sex ratio: the number of females per 1,000 males in a
population
population pyramid: a graphical representation of the
age-sex composition of a population
working-age people: people who are generally between the ages of
15 and 64 years and are able to work and earn a living
dependants: people who usually do not earn an income and rely on
others for support, mainly children (below 15 years) and older people (65 years
and above)
demographic dividend: the economic bonus from having a large,
productive working-age population relative to dependants
youth bulge: a disproportionately large share of young
people in a population's age structure.
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